Thinking and bias

Two systems in the head – and why the fast one takes over

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman on the two ways the brain makes decisions, and the systematic errors that follow. A walk through the ideas in Thinking, Fast and Slow – and through which parts of the book have not held up.

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What this covers

  1. System 1 and System 2 – the two ways the brain works
  2. Anchoring, and why random numbers affect judgements
  3. Availability – that what we recall easily feels common
  4. Loss aversion and prospect theory
  5. Framing, and how the question decides the answer
  6. The planning fallacy – why everything takes longer than assumed
  7. The experiencing self and the remembering self

What this covers (cont.)

  1. What has not held up, and what Kahneman himself retracted

The two systems

The image the book is built around: the brain works in two ways.

The two systems

System 1

Fast and automatic

  • Takes no effort
  • Always on
  • Recognises faces, reads signs, answers 4 to 2 + 2
  • Answers even when it cannot

System 2

Slow and deliberate

  • Takes concentration
  • Switched on when needed, and preferably not
  • Multiplies 17 by 24, fills in the form
  • Is rarely asked to check System 1
Both are necessary. The trouble starts when the fast system answers a question it cannot answer, so quickly and so confidently that the slow one is never asked.

Some of the biases

Prospect theory

Prospect theory – the curve is steeper going down

Felt value Gain → ← Loss The reference point is where you stand now
Outcomes are judged not by how much you end up with, but by the change from where you stand. And the fall stings more than the rise pleases – about twice as much.

Two selves

One of the most thought-provoking parts is about memory. The experiencing self is you while something is happening. The remembering self is you telling the story afterwards. They do not agree.

What has not held up

Worth knowing

Key points

  • The brain has two modes: one fast and automatic, one slow and effortful.
  • The fast system also answers questions it cannot answer.
  • A loss is felt roughly twice as strongly as an equivalent gain.
  • How a choice is worded changes what people choose.

Key points (cont.)

  • We plan as if nothing will go wrong, every time.
  • Kahneman himself added a caveat to the chapter on priming. So should the reader.

Questions this answers

  • What are System 1 and System 2?
  • What is a cognitive bias?
  • What is the anchoring effect?
  • Why do losses weigh more than equivalent gains?
  • What is the framing effect?
  • Why do we always underestimate how long something takes?

Questions this answers (cont.)

  • What is the difference between experiencing something and remembering it?
  • Can the findings in Thinking, Fast and Slow be trusted?

Sources

  • Daniel Kahneman – Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)

Spørretimen

Read the whole thing at

www.sporretimen.no/en/episodes/thinking-fast-and-slow/